Thursday, March 04, 2010

Is the next Oil Shock about to Hit? Is the next technical revolution about to really begin?

After this recession is over and economic activity starts to tick back up as will the demand for energy. Will this set off another Oil Shock like we saw a few years ago?
Most of the easy to get at oil is gone and giant oil fields like Ghawar and Cantarell have peaked, the North sea is winding down as well as Alaska. Yes we had a small oil crash but this is only temporary.
We are going to have to innovate fast if we are to avoid this long term crisis. The way our infrastructure here in the USA is based on most of the population living in the suburbs and commuting. I really do not see how we can cope unless people just stop driving. I really feel that a much larger percentage of the workforce will Telecommute as long as their job allows. If not worker will have to move out of necessity. The days of flying are coming to an end, my kids kids will probably not know what it is like to fly on an airplane.
We have squandered our most valuable resource. One barrel of oil is equal to 25,000 of human labor. At $2.50 a gallon one cup of gas cost less than 16 cents a cup. So in the city driving a mile costs you only $0.16. Imagine if you had to walk or bike that far. Imagine if you were towing your spouse and kids along. Does $0.3125 cents a cup sound expensive? or $5.00 a gallon?
I'm not trying to be all gloom and doom and I believe that there is hope like what Bloom Energy is doing. But we need more innovators like Dr. KR Sridha.

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